Like kids shaking presents under the tree, Black Friday aficionados are not content to wait until the first leaked ads to find out what is in store for them. Here’s what the Black Friday by Brad’s Deals team is expecting to see, both in terms of overall trends and the prices on this year’s hottest buys.
How Many People Will Shop This Year?
Despite the hype, Black Friday was not the biggest day of the shopping year historically, though it has been in the last few years as battered consumers focus more dollars on Black Friday’s famous deals. We think it will be again this year with 225M shoppers turning out – up 50% from 2007 – and spending 5.5% more per person ($385 vs $365) than last year.
The average shopper will spend about $730 this year on holidays gifts. The average Black Friday shopper will do half of all their holiday shopping on Black Friday!
|Black Friday Stats||2011*||2010||2009||2008||2007|
|# of Shoppers||225M||212M||195M||172M||147M|
|$ Per Shopper||$385||$365||$343||$372||$347|
|% of Holiday Retail Sales||10.6%||10%||9.6%||9.5%||8.9%|
*predictions; stats are for Thu-Sun on Black Friday weekend; shoppers can be counted more than once; Sources: BIGResearch, NRF, Shoppertrak
Shopping on Thanksgiving Day has skyrocketed from 10.3M shoppers in 2005 to 22M shoppers in 2010 as more stores jump the gun and open on the holiday. This will continue.
Current economic conditions aren’t great, but of course, a lot can happen before Black Friday. Holiday retail sales grew 5.2% in 2010 versus 2009 after two years of year-over-year declines, according to the National Retail Federation. We think 2011 is going to be a more challenging year for retailers and consumers alike. The Black Friday by Brad’s Deals official 2011 prediction is 2.4% growth in holiday sales from $45B in 2010.
On the other hand, it isn’t all bad news. According to the Washington Post, consumer confidence is better than it was as the country came out of the recession in 2009. And retail sales are growing year-over-year. A number of retailers are reviving layaway as a possibility for holiday buyers in the hopes of increasing sales. Target and Limited just beat September sales estimates but had to resort to heavy promotions to do it. We think that other retailers are going to follow suit going into the holiday season, even if the deep discounts end up hurting their bottom line.
Black Friday 2011′s online sales will grow most rapidly, with numbers moving from $648M to $800M, reflecting broader growth online and the expectation of particularly aggressive deals from web retailers. Cyber Monday will be the biggest day online this year, again eclipsing the so-called Green Monday.
What Will the Best Deals Be?!?
Now for the fun part: our price predictions for this year’s big holiday items.