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In a perfect world, the Apple Store would make all our dreams come true with a blowout Black Friday sale that would slash the prices on all their hot new products like the iPhone 6 and the iPad Air.

Sadly, we live in the real world, and if history is any indication, Apple’s 2014 Black Friday deals aren’t going to knock anyone’s socks off. Every year Apple rolls out the same predictable 5 percent discounts and free shipping promotions for things like iPhones, iPads, iPods and MacBooks, and there’s no reason to think 2014 will be any different. We’ve told you before, when it comes to sizable Black Friday deals on Apple products, you’re going to be better off shopping anywhere BUT the Apple Store. We usually see the best Black Friday Apple prices from Amazon, Best Buy and MacMall, so check there to avoid unnecessarily splurging at the Apple Store.

Tech sites are abuzz with anticipation over the release of the iPad Air 2 and the iPad mini 3, and we think it’s likely that we’ll see both products released before Black Friday. The iPad Mini 2 (officially called “the iPad mini with Retina display”) and the original iPad Air came out last year in early November, and Apple is usually pretty good about following its own launch schedule. With the debut of these shiny new tablets, we expect to see some pretty serious discounts on previous iPad generations. The standard iPad with Retina display and the iPad mini (without Retina display) will likely be discontinued and sent on a death march to the Island of Misfit Apple Products, and this is good news for deal-savvy shoppers. You can find great prices on discontinued and refurbished Apple products when you at shop other online retailers like hhgregg and eBay.

Since the release of the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus, we’ve already seen some major price cuts on the iPhone 5c and 5s. Apple is offering the 5s for $99 with a two-year contract, and the 5c is free! We predict we’ll see these prices blown out of the water on Black Friday, so check back here for pricing updates on these older generation phones. As we mentioned in our 2014 Black Friday Predictions, Walmart was the place to go last year to get the 5c for a net gain of $35, and that was just months after its release! We think you may be able to get the 5c this year for a net gain of up to $50, but we’ll just have to wait and see.

To Apple’s credit, the MacBook Air models they released in April are significantly cheaper than ever before. The 11-inch MacBook Air starts at $899 retail and the 13-inch at $999, which is even less than their Black Friday sale prices last year. So keep your eyes peeled during the 2014 Black Friday season; if you play your cards right, you may be able get a new MacBook Air at a PC price.

While the Apple Watch announcement made quite a splash, it sadly isn’t slated for release until early 2015. We’ll have to wait until then to know the retail price of the new smart watch, and even longer to see any kind of price drop.

Of course what everyone really wants is a good deal on an iPhone 6 or 6 Plus. Last year, we saw the ritzier iPhone 5S being sold for as low as $179.99 at Target, and I’d wager we’ll see even lower Black Friday pricing on the smaller screened, 16GB iPhone 6. It’s hard to say how much the $299 16GB iPhone 6 Plus will go for, but we can guess. The first generation iPad mini was also being sold for $299 retail last year, and we saw quite a few Black Friday deals for that product as low as $239. We’re actually already seeing some Black Friday-type pricing on these new phones. Our favorites? Walmart is offering the iPhone 6 at $179 and the iPhone 6 Plus at $279 with a 2-year contract with either AT&T, Sprint or Verizon. If you have an older generation iPhone in good, working condition, AT&T will give you up to a $300 credit to trade it in, which is enough to make both of these new phones free with a 2-year contract! If we’re seeing deals like this now, we can expect even crazier savings on Black Friday, so your bank account will thank you if you wait just a little longer to pick up a new iPhone.

 

Black Friday Apple Deals for 2014: Coming Soon!